At its meeting on 30 July 2026, did the Bank of England keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%?

No rationale was submitted for this round.

No rationale was submitted for this round.

No rationale was submitted for this round.

No rationale was submitted for this round.

No rationale was submitted for this round.

It is widely expected by economists and futures markets that the Bank of England will keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% during their July 30, 2026, meeting, driven by moderating but persistent inflation risks.

BOE held Bank Rate at 3.75% in June with 7-2 vote. July 30 decision is expected to leave it unchanged given balanced risks and recent energy inflation. Market pricing and economist consensus exceed 85% for hold. Official announcement will confirm. Strongest evidence is June minutes, current rate page on BOE site, and July previews. Main uncertainty is exact vote and forward guidance. Hotter inflation or persistent wage growth could force a hike; softer activity data could open door to cut. Baseline remains hold.

Same decision as the related 3.75% hold question: the July 30 BOE announcement (12:00 London, after as_of) is widely expected to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%. June's hold passed 7-2 with both dissenters wanting a hike; Bailey and Breeden have counseled patience; and the late-July oil pullback reduces the urgency for an immediate response to the conflict-driven inflation spike. The main risk is a hawkish majority forming for a hike to 4.00% given UK inflation has been above target almost continuously and Pill argues rates must rise this year — but majority formation for an immediate hike amid extreme geopolitical uncertainty is the less likely outcome (~21% hike, ~1% cut).

No rationale was submitted for this round.

Every economist in the latest Reuters poll expected the BOE to keep Bank Rate at 3.75%, and the June meeting's seven-member majority also favored that level. An unexpected hike prompted by energy inflation is the principal remaining risk; a cut is still less plausible.

This question is identical in substance to the previous BoE‑rate question: did the Bank of England keep the Bank Rate at 3.75%? The finance‑based evidence is the same UK‑bond and FX‑options data as cited above, which imply a roughly balanced probability between a 25‑bp cut and a hold. The gilt curve and sterling‑linked derivatives are consistent with a slight tilt toward a rate reduction, which slightly favors NO (rate not kept at 3.75%). However, because the central‑bank decision is binary and sensitive to individual‑voter behavior, the probability is only modestly on the side of a change and is not extreme.

No rationale was submitted for this round.

This asks whether the BoE kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75% at its July 30, 2026 meeting. This is the same decision as the related question about maintaining 3.75%. The BoE's decision depends on the balance between sticky services inflation and growth/labor market weakness. A hold is slightly favored given the BoE's cautious gradualist approach, but a cut is quite possible if recent data softened. Assigned 0.55 YES. Main uncertainty: weak labor market or GDP data could push the MPC to cut to 3.50%.